Price history TSLA · Daily ViewHigh 489.88 · Low 298.32H 489.88 · L 298.32RSI 50
20-day avg334.6450-day avg362.42200-day avg401.78High volume3× median
300.00350.00400.00450.00300.00350.00400.00450.00Use the arrow keys to review each day’s close.
RSI · momentum 0–1007-day14-day7030
MACD 12/26/9 · trend momentumMACDsignal0
OctDecFebAprJunAug
Aug 26, 2025Close · −1.7% over this periodAug 26, 2026
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally.
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Automotive; and Energy Generation and Storage. The company offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits; and non-warranty maintenance services and collision, automotive insurance services, as well as part sales and retail merchandise sale. It also provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla Superchargers, and in-app upgrades; purchase financing and leasing services; services for electric vehicles through its company-owned service locations and Tesla mobile service technicians; and vehicle limited warranties and extended service plans. In addition, the company engages in the design, manufacture, installation, sale, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and utilities through its website, stores, and galleries, as well as through a network of channel partners. Further, it provides services and repairs to its energy product customers, including under warranty and extended service plans; and various financing options to its residential customers; lithium-ion battery energy storage products, such as Powerwall and Megapack; energy generation products, including solar panels and solar roof; self-driving development and artificial intelligence software, vehicle control and infotainment software, and battery and powertrain. The company was formerly known as Tesla Motors, Inc. and changed its name to Tesla, Inc. in February 2017. Tesla, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Tesla designs and manufactures electric vehicles (its largest but declining revenue source), while pivoting toward AI-driven autonomy via its robotaxi/FSD platform, the Optimus humanoid robot, and a fast-growing, high-margin energy generation and storage (Megapack/solar) business.
Improving short momentum Bulls point to MACD at -1.73 versus its signal line at -6.86, stochastic %K at 68.1 and a 10-day rate of change at 5.24% as evidence that recent price momentum has improved from the lower levels.
Rebound above support Bulls point to the last close at 350.25 remaining above the 20-day EMA at 343.46 and the recent cluster around ~335–343, with the 1-month return at 13.27% indicating a meaningful rebound within the measured period.
What bears would say
Below moving averages Bears would counter that the last close at 350.25 remains below the 50-day moving average at 363.73 and the 200-day moving average at 402.28, leaving the longer trend structure overhead.
Bearish cross history Bears would note that the most recent 50/200 cross was bearish, 139 days ago, after 1 bullish cross and 2 bearish crosses over the past year. They would also point to the 3-month return of -20.46% as evidence of unresolved medium-term weakness.
AI read
Neutral momentum profile RSI (14) at 51.9 and weekly RSI (14) at 47.1 are near neutral, while stochastic %K at 68.1 and a 10-day rate of change of 5.24% show recent upward momentum without an extreme reading. MACD at -1.73 is above its signal line at -6.86, indicating improving momentum, while ADX (14) at 20.5 points to limited trend strength.
Immediate resistance ~360–364 This zone reflects repeated closes around 360.59, 361.83 and 362.86, with the 50-day moving average at 363.73 and upper Bollinger band at 364.31 nearby. The last close at 350.25 is near the zone; remaining above it would place the recent rebound above a concentrated technical barrier, while a reversal below it would leave the moving average structure unresolved.
Secondary resistance ~374–396 The area contains several closes between 374.01 and 396.73 and sits above the immediate resistance. A move through this zone would address the March-to-August congestion, while rejection there would keep the broader decline from the 52-week high at 498.83 in focus.
Primary support ~335–343 The zone contains repeated closes from 330.88 through 342.27 and is close to the 20-day EMA at 343.46. The last close at 350.25 is near this support area; remaining above it would preserve the short-term rebound structure, while a close below it would shift attention toward lower historical clusters.
Measured-window sell signal The measured record lists a sell signal for trend structure: the last close at 350.25 is below the 50-day average at 363.73 and the 200-day at 402.28475, with the most recent 50/200 cross bearish, 139 days ago.
Full analysis
The technical picture is mixed rather than strongly directional. RSI (14) at 51.9, weekly RSI (14) at 47.1 and ADX (14) at 20.5 describe a market close to neutral momentum with limited trend strength. At the same time, stochastic %K at 68.1 and the 10-day rate of change at 5.24% show that the latest move has been upward. MACD at -1.73 versus a signal line at -6.86 adds evidence of improving momentum, although both remain part of a longer structure in which the last close at 350.25 sits below the 50-day moving average at 363.73 and the 200-day moving average at 402.28.
The nearby level map is defined first by the cluster around ~360–364. Several closes sit in that area, and the 50-day moving average at 363.73 plus the upper Bollinger band at 364.31 reinforce it. Above that, ~374–396 contains repeated historical closes and marks a wider congestion area. A continuation above ~360–364 would bring ~374–396 into focus, while a reversal below the first zone would return attention to ~335–343, where recent closes cluster near the 20-day EMA at 343.46.
Volatility remains material, with ATR (14) at 12.02 and ATR as % of close at 3.4%. The 52-week range from 297.38 to 498.83 places the last close well below the high and above the low, so breaks from the nearby zones would carry more information than the neutral oscillators alone. Over the past year, overbought RSI episodes happened 4 times, after which the median 1-month return was -2.4% and the median 3-month return was -10%, with a positive 3-month share of 50%. The history also records 1 bullish cross and 2 bearish crosses, with the last cross bearish, 139 days ago.
Report
The read at a glance
Short term
weeks
Momentum positive
RSI 52
Mid term
months
Downtrend
Price 12.9% below the 200-day MA.
Long term
business quality
Solid
P/E: Elevated multiple.
Volume signalTier C: Baseline
A fresh read is generating from the latest figures; the read below is the previous one.
What bulls would say
Top-line expansion Bulls point to revenue growth of 25.5% and revenue of 103.6B as evidence that sales expansion provides a foundation for improved operating leverage.
Cash and liquidity Bulls point to free cash flow of 5.8B, FCF conversion of 1.51, debt-to-equity of 18.4 and a current ratio of 1.94 as evidence of cash generation and balance-sheet capacity.
Short-term momentum Bulls point to MACD at -1.73 versus its signal line at -6.86, stochastic %K at 68.1 and a 10-day rate of change of 5.24% as evidence that recent price momentum has improved.
What bears would say
Weak earnings conversion Bears would counter that earnings growth is -3%, operating margin is 1.4%, profit margin is 3.7%, return on equity is 4.7% and return on assets is 1.9%, indicating limited conversion of revenue into returns.
Demanding valuation Bears would note a trailing P/E of 285.5, forward P/E of 140.2, EV/EBITDA of 111.8 and PEG ratio of 4.56 relative to earnings growth of -3%.
Overhead trend structure Bears would note that the last close at 350.25 remains below the 50-day moving average at 363.73 and the 200-day moving average at 402.28, while the most recent 50/200 cross was bearish, 139 days ago.
Rebound meets overhead supply The last close at 350.25 remains above the ~335–343 support area but below immediate resistance at ~360–364, where the 50-day moving average is 363.73 and the upper Bollinger band is 364.31. A close above ~360–364 would bring ~374–396 into focus, while a reversal below support would weaken the short-term rebound structure.
Trend signal remains bearish The measured record lists a sell signal for trend structure because the last close at 350.25 is below the 50-day average at 363.73 and the 200-day at 402.28475, with the most recent 50/200 cross bearish, 139 days ago.
Growth without earnings leverage Revenue growth of 25.5% and revenue of 103.6B show substantial top-line expansion, but earnings growth of -3%, a 1.4% operating margin and a 3.7% profit margin show limited conversion into reported profitability. The trailing P/E of 285.5 and forward P/E of 140.2 make that conversion gap central to the valuation read.
Cash and liquidity cushion Free cash flow of 5.8B exceeds net income of 3.8B, with FCF conversion of 1.51, while debt-to-equity of 18.4 and a current ratio of 1.94 indicate balance-sheet support. This cushions liquidity risk but does not resolve the modest return profile, including return on equity of 4.7% and return on assets of 1.9%.
Earnings date and open risks The next earnings date is 2026-10-21, creating a defined point for updated operating results. The unresolved conditions include annualized volatility of 46.7%, beta of 1.83, and the last close remaining below both the 50-day and 200-day averages.
Full analysis
The main cross-domain tension is between operating scale and earnings conversion. Revenue growth of 25.5% and free cash flow of 5.8B provide constructive operating evidence, but earnings growth of -3%, operating margin of 1.4% and profit margin of 3.7% leave the valuation dependent on stronger financial conversion. Trailing P/E of 285.5, forward P/E of 140.2 and EV/EBITDA of 111.8 make the next fundamental update especially relevant to how the current price is interpreted.
Technically, the last close at 350.25 sits above the primary support area of ~335–343 and below immediate resistance at ~360–364. RSI (14) at 51.9, weekly RSI (14) at 47.1 and ADX (14) at 20.5 describe neutral momentum and limited trend strength, while MACD at -1.73 versus its signal line at -6.86, stochastic %K at 68.1 and a 10-day rate of change of 5.24% show recent improvement. A sustained move above ~360–364 would bring ~374–396 into focus; a close below ~335–343 would return attention to lower historical clusters.
Over the past year, overbought RSI episodes happened 4 times, after which the median 3-month return was -10%, with a positive 3-month share of 50%. Separately, over the past year, volume-spike episodes occurred 83 times at volume 2x+ the 50-day median, after which the median 3-month move was 3.6%, with a positive 3-month share of 61%. Current participation is less forceful, with 0 days of elevated volume and daily float turnover of 1.1%.
StrengthGrowth & qualityMostly positive profitability and growth votes across available metrics.
CautionTop risk flaggedA trailing P/E of 285.5 and forward P/E of 140.2 leave valuation highly sensitive to the 3.7% profit margin and -3% earnings growth.
History
What followed past signals
Episodes from the past year for this stock: what price did in the weeks after each signal fired. Descriptive of the past, not a forecast.
mixed outcomes historically
After daily RSI rose above 70 (4 episodes), the median 3-month move was −10.00%; 2 of 4 episodes were positive over 3 months.
median 1-month move: −2.40%
historically followed by gains
After a volume spike (83 episodes), the median 3-month move was +3.60%; 51 of 83 episodes were positive over 3 months.
median 1-month move: +3.90%
volume 2x+ the 50-day median
1 upward and 2 downward 50/200-day crosses in the period; most recent: downward 50/200-day cross, 139 days ago.
Historical episodes over the past year: descriptive, not predictive. Past patterns do not determine future moves.
Episodes as of Aug 26, 2026
Signals
Signals & levels
Buy and sell signals computed from this stock's own price history; each one shows the sessions it was measured over and what followed them. Descriptive of the past, not a prediction and not advice.
Sell signalSell signal: trend structure
Last close 350.25 is below both the 50-day average at 363.73 and the 200-day at 402.28475. The most recent 50/200 cross was bearish, 139 days ago.
Strongest measured band below the current price
~220.11–258.65
73 sessions closed here, 73 of them with a full three-month window ahead; their median move over those three months was +40.41%, positive in 62 of 73.
Weakest measured band above the current price
~451.34–489.88
28 sessions closed here, 28 of them with a full three-month window ahead; their median move over those three months was −18.24%, positive in 0 of 28.
What followed sessions that closed in each price band
Median move after those sessions at four forward horizons, with the number of measured windows that ended higher.
Price band
Sessions closed
1 month
3 months
6 months
1 year
~451.34–489.88
28
−7.55%0/28
−18.24%0/28
−15.96%0/28, too few non-overlapping windows to support a signal
+0.17%3/4, too few non-overlapping windows to support a signal
~412.8–451.34
106
−4.2%33/106
−8.39%27/97
−14.27%5/86, too few non-overlapping windows to support a signal
+7.65%14/14, too few non-overlapping windows to support a signal
~374.26–412.8
105
−5.38%34/105
−3.01%29/78
Signals are statistical summaries of what followed similar past sessions for this stock. Past behaviour does not determine future results, and nothing here is a recommendation or personal advice.
Measured over 549 sessions, 2024-06-18 to 2026-08-26.
Catalysts & risks
What could move the read
The next known event on the calendar and the risk factors the AI narrative flags, each paired with the figure behind it where one exists.
Next earningsScheduled for Oct 21, 2026, in 55 days.
What bulls would say
Upcoming information point Bulls point to the next earnings date of 2026-10-21 as a defined point when updated operating results become observable, alongside revenue growth of 25.5% and free cash flow of 5.8B.
Cash generation evidence Bulls point to free cash flow of 5.8B, net income of 3.8B, and FCF conversion of 1.51 as evidence that cash generation currently compares favourably with reported profit.
Crowd-cited developments Bulls point to investors on X citing permit approval for up to 5,000 robotaxis in the Next 30 days, a Cybercab launch on September 3, and a 2026 Summer Update described as Ongoing.
What bears would say
Earnings-quality pressure Bears would counter that earnings growth is -3% despite revenue growth of 25.5%, while operating margin is 1.4% and profit margin is 3.7%.
Demanding valuation metrics Bears would note a trailing P/E of 285.5, forward P/E of 140.2, and EV/EBITDA of 111.8 against EBITDA of 12B.
Technical and volatility exposure Bears would note the last close at 350.25 remains below the 50-day average at 363.73 and the 200-day at 402.28475, alongside annualized volatility of 46.7%.
AI read
Scheduled earnings date The next earnings date is 2026-10-21, providing a defined calendar point for the next reported update.
Past overbought episodes Over the past year, overbought RSI episodes happened 4 times, after which the median 3-month return was -10, with a positive 3-month share of 50%.
Past volume-spike episodes Over the past year, volume-spike episodes occurred 83 times at a threshold of volume 2x+ the 50-day median, after which the median 3-month move was 3.6%, with a positive 3-month share of 61%.
Social sentiment
What X is saying
Voices, catalysts and arguments from public X discussion over the last 90 days: crowd opinion, not analysis.
Bullish
X chatter on TSLA over the last 90 days is predominantly upbeat, centered on product milestones, regulatory wins and institutional accumulation, with limited counter-narrative from short-focused accounts.
Discussion themes
Robotaxi and FSD regulatory approvals and rolloutsOptimus and Cybercab production timelinesInstitutional buying and analyst upgradesSoftware updates including Grok integrationFactory expansions like Nevada Semi
“EXCLUSIVE: Tesla has just officially received approval for its full Autonomous Vehicle Network Company permit in Nevada, clearing the way for Tesla to launch a paid public Robotaxi service in Las Vegas.”
“GOOD NEWS Erste Group analyst Stephan Lingnau has upgraded $TSLA to a HOLD (from a Sell previously) The rationale behind the upgrade is simple: 1 Rising operating margins & maxing out factory utilization 2 Explicitly pricing in Cybercab & Semi series production this year”
Trailing profitability, cash generation, growth, leverage and the full valuation set.
Solid
What bulls would say
Top-line expansion Bulls point to revenue growth of 25.5% alongside revenue of 103.6B, framing the scale of sales expansion as a potential foundation for improved operating leverage.
Cash generation cushion Bulls point to free cash flow of 5.8B, FCF conversion of 1.51, debt-to-equity of 18.4, and a current ratio of 1.94 as evidence of cash support and balance-sheet capacity.
What bears would say
Weak earnings conversion Bears would counter that earnings growth is -3%, operating margin is 1.4%, profit margin is 3.7%, return on equity is 4.7%, and return on assets is 1.9%, indicating limited conversion of revenue into returns.
Demanding valuation level Bears would note a trailing P/E of 285.5, forward P/E of 140.2, EV/EBITDA of 111.8, and PEG ratio of 4.56 relative to earnings growth of -3%.
AI read
Thin operating profitability The 18.9% gross margin narrows to a 1.4% operating margin and a 3.7% profit margin, while return on equity is 4.7% and return on assets is 1.9%. The returns indicate limited capital efficiency relative to the revenue base.
Growth and cash diverge Revenue growth of 25.5% supports expansion, but earnings growth of -3% shows that reported profit is not keeping pace. Free cash flow of 5.8B and FCF conversion of 1.51 provide a stronger cash measure than the 3.8B of net income alone.
Moderate balance-sheet leverage Debt-to-equity of 18.4 and a current ratio of 1.94 describe moderate leverage alongside a meaningful liquidity cushion. This reduces the balance-sheet strain implied by the thin operating margin, without removing profitability risk.
Valuation versus earnings A trailing P/E of 285.5 and forward P/E of 140.2 are high relative to 3.7% profit margin and -3% earnings growth. Price-to-book of 14.2, price-to-sales of 11.9, EV/EBITDA of 111.8, and PEG ratio of 4.56 reinforce the tension between the valuation and current earnings output.
Market context
Correlations & market neighborhood
How this stock's daily returns have co-moved with the benchmark, its sector, rates and peers: descriptive co-movement, not causation.
tends to move with the S&P 500
What bulls would say
Sector alignment Bulls point to sector correlation of 0.72 over 3-month and 0.70 over 1-year windows, alongside S&P 500 correlation of 0.69 and 0.62, as evidence of established co-movement with major equity groups.
Limited short positioning Bulls point to a short ratio of 1.61 and short percent of float of 1.9% as measures showing relatively limited reported short positioning, while institutional ownership stands at 43.7%.
Positive breadth backdrop Bulls point to 54.9% of regional stocks above the 200-day average, an advance/decline ratio of 1.25, and net new highs of 228 as a constructive surrounding market backdrop.
What bears would say
Elevated beta exposure Bears would counter that beta of 1.83 indicates amplified sensitivity to broad-market swings, while Nasdaq Composite correlation remains 0.70 over 3-month and 0.68 over 1-year windows.
Volatility co-movement Bears would note the negative VIX correlations of -0.59 over 3-month and -0.53 over 1-year windows, describing a persistent inverse co-movement with the volatility index rather than an isolated short-term reading.
Mixed ownership structure Bears would point to institutional ownership of 43.7% and insider ownership of 17.8% as a split ownership profile, alongside short percent of float of 1.9% and a short ratio of 1.61.
AI read
Broad market co-movement The stock shows meaningful co-movement with the S&P 500 at 0.69 over 3-month and 0.62 over 1-year windows, while its relationship with the Consumer discretionary sector ETF is somewhat stronger at 0.72 and 0.70. This places its trading character between broad-market and sector-linked exposure rather than indicating an isolated pattern.
High market sensitivity A beta of 1.83 indicates materially amplified sensitivity to broad equity movements. The 3-month and 1-year correlations with the Nasdaq Composite, at 0.70 and 0.68, and with the Nasdaq-100 ETF, at 0.68 and 0.67, show that this profile has remained relatively consistent across the two windows.
Accumulation
Full accumulation read
The volume microstructure behind the signal tier: how concentrated and persistent recent buying pressure has been.
No unusual volume pattern
What bulls would say
Positive money flow Bulls point to Chaikin money flow of 0.12 as evidence of a positive money-flow balance, alongside 3-day relative volume of 1.12x and 5-day relative volume of 1.02x.
Documented spike history Bulls point to 83 volume-spike episodes over the past year, after which the median 3-month move was 3.6% and the positive 3-month share was 61%.
What bears would say
Quiet latest session Bears would note one-day relative volume of 0.78x, a volume z-score of -0.8, and a 20-day volume rank of 36.8%, all consistent with subdued recent participation.
Limited accumulation breadth Bears would note a 50-day up/down volume ratio of 0.93, 0 days of elevated volume, daily float turnover of 1.1%, and a false stealth-accumulation flag.
AI read
Recent activity mixed One-day relative volume was 0.78x of the 50-day median, while the 3-day and 5-day readings were 1.12x and 1.02x. Activity has therefore been closer to normal across the broader recent window than in the latest session.
Participation below recent norms The volume z-score was -0.8 and the 20-day volume rank was 36.8%, indicating that recent turnover has generally sat below much of the last 20-session distribution.
Positive flow, weaker balance Chaikin money flow at 0.12 indicates a positive money-flow balance, but the 50-day up/down volume ratio of 0.93 shows less volume on advancing sessions than on declining sessions.
No sustained volume surge There were 0 days of elevated volume, daily float turnover was 1.1%, and the stealth-accumulation flag was false. That combination does not identify persistent abnormal participation behind the recent move.
Spike history provides context Over the past year, volume-spike episodes occurred 83 times at a threshold of volume 2x+ the 50-day median, after which the median 3-month move was 3.6% and the positive 3-month share was 61%.
The last close at 350.25 compares with a 52-week high of 498.83 and a 52-week low of 297.38, alongside a 1-month return of 13.27% and a 3-month return of -20.46%. Ahead, the scheduled earnings date of 2026-10-21 provides the next observable operating checkpoint. Investors on X cite Nevada Autonomous Vehicle Network Company permit approval for up to 5,000 robotaxis, a Cybercab launch on September 3 and the inauguration of a new Semi factory in Nevada, while investors on X also cite Michael Burry maintaining short positions alongside broader tech and AI names. These crowd claims remain unverified; the forward picture would remain conditional on operating results, price remaining above the nearby support area, and the risk of a close below it or continued trading beneath the moving averages.
−18.43%
6/41, too few non-overlapping windows to support a signal
+8.9%23/23, too few non-overlapping windows to support a signal
~335.73–374.26now
78
+7.47%42/68
+0.34%33/66
+15.13%36/51, too few non-overlapping windows to support a signal
+21.09%39/42, too few non-overlapping windows to support a signal
~297.19–335.73
77
+7.52%49/66
+30.27%60/62
+34.83%62/62, too few non-overlapping windows to support a signal
+23.09%53/59, too few non-overlapping windows to support a signal
~258.65–297.19
43
+4.86%31/43
+17.58%41/43
+53.66%43/43, too few non-overlapping windows to support a signal
+41.05%43/43, too few non-overlapping windows to support a signal
~220.11–258.65
73
+2.34%43/73
+40.41%62/73
+56.19%68/73, too few non-overlapping windows to support a signal
+61.2%73/73, too few non-overlapping windows to support a signal
Last close 350.25 sits in the ~335.73–374.26 band.
Figures shown in grey rest on too few non-overlapping windows to support a signal, and the longest horizons are measured over fewer of them; the counts beside each figure are the windows actually measured.
Crowd-cited permit timing Investors on X cite Nevada Autonomous Vehicle Network Company permit approval for up to 5,000 robotaxis, described in the discussion as occurring in the Next 30 days.
Crowd-cited product timing Investors on X cite a Cybercab launch on September 3 and the inauguration of a new Semi factory in Nevada in the Next month.
Full analysis
The clearest scheduled item is the next earnings date on 2026-10-21. It is a calendar marker rather than evidence of the report's outcome, so its relevance is limited to when the next fundamental update becomes observable. The current fundamental backdrop remains mixed: revenue growth is 25.5%, while earnings growth is -3%, operating margin is 1.4%, and profit margin is 3.7%. These figures define the areas where a future update could add information without establishing a direction in advance.
Historical episodes provide context, not forecasts. Over the past year, overbought RSI episodes happened 4 times, after which the median 1-month return was -2.4% and the median 3-month return was -10%, with a positive 3-month share of 50%. Separately, over the past year, volume-spike episodes occurred 83 times at volume 2x+ the 50-day median, after which the median 1-month move was 3.9% and the median 3-month move was 3.6%, with a positive 3-month share of 61%. The current snapshot does not show comparable elevated participation, with 0 days of elevated volume and daily float turnover of 1.1%.
Investors on X cite several discussion items, including Nevada Autonomous Vehicle Network Company permit approval for up to 5,000 robotaxis in the Next 30 days, a Cybercab launch on September 3, and the inauguration of a new Semi factory in Nevada in the Next month. The same discussion references a 2026 Summer Update with Grok and FSD features rolling out as Ongoing. These remain crowd-cited items rather than confirmed company events in this read. The observable price response would need to be assessed alongside the scheduled earnings date, participation measures, and the gap between current valuation and earnings output.
A trailing P/E of 285.5 and forward P/E of 140.2 leave valuation highly sensitive to the 3.7% profit margin and -3% earnings growth.Next earnings: in 55 days
The 1.4% operating margin and returns of 4.7% on equity and 1.9% on assets indicate limited profitability and capital efficiency.
Annualized volatility of 46.7% and beta of 1.83 indicate that price movements can be amplified relative to broader equity-market moves.ATR, % of price: 3.4%
The current technical structure includes a last close at 350.25 below the 50-day average at 363.73 and the 200-day at 402.28475, while the most recent 50/200 cross was bearish, 139 days ago.
“Michael Burry warns the AI and semiconductor rally has further to fall... He said his SOXX position and put options together make up a very large position of his portfolio. Short positions he added to... He also stated that he remains bearish on the broader technology sector and ”
Positive catalysts
Nevada Autonomous Vehicle Network Company permit approval for up to 5,000 robotaxisNext 30 days
Cybercab launchSeptember 3
Inauguration of new Semi factory in NevadaNext month
2026 Summer Update with Grok and FSD features rolling outOngoing
What bulls on X argue
Tesla received full Nevada permit authorizing up to 5,000 robotaxis across the state after completing self-certification.
FSD (Supervised) has driven over 100 million km in Europe with rapid recent growth and approvals in five countries.
Goldman Sachs and Barclays increased TSLA stakes in Q2 2026, with Goldman adding $699M and Barclays 1M+ shares.
Analysts upgraded ratings citing rising margins, factory utilization, and explicit inclusion of Cybercab and Semi timelines.
Optimus advancing toward mass production with suppliers locked in and Cybercab using unboxed process targeting 2M units/year.
What bears on X argue
Michael Burry maintains short positions on TSLA alongside broader tech and AI names, citing concerns over circular financing in AI demand.
Sourced from public X posts · generated Aug 26, 2026 · quotes are third-party opinions from X users, not statements or advice from FullStockData.
Limited trend evidence Capex to operating cash flow is 0.69, while the prior-period comparison is n/a. Share-count change, buyback yield, and prior FCF conversion are also n/a, limiting the read on multi-quarter capital allocation direction.
Full analysis
The profitability profile is the central fundamental constraint. Revenue of 103.6B and gross margin of 18.9% do not translate into comparable operating or bottom-line thickness, with operating margin at 1.4% and profit margin at 3.7%. Return on equity of 4.7% and return on assets of 1.9% similarly describe modest returns generated from the capital base.
Growth is mixed in quality. Revenue growth of 25.5% provides a substantial top-line contribution, but earnings growth of -3% indicates pressure between revenue and net income. Free cash flow of 5.8B exceeds net income of 3.8B, and FCF conversion of 1.51 indicates that cash generation currently compares favourably with reported profit. Capex to operating cash flow at 0.69 gives a current view of reinvestment intensity, although the prior measure is n/a.
The balance sheet offers some resilience through debt-to-equity of 18.4 and a current ratio of 1.94. That combination is less aggressive than the valuation metrics imply, but liquidity and leverage do not resolve the low-return profile. The missing share-count change, buyback yield, and prior FCF conversion also leave the direction of capital allocation only partially observable.
The valuation rests on a demanding relationship with present fundamentals: trailing P/E is 285.5, forward P/E is 140.2, and EV/EBITDA is 111.8 against EBITDA of 12B. Price-to-book of 14.2, price-to-sales of 11.9, and PEG ratio of 4.56 extend that premium across several measures. Over the past year, the current P/E was 285.5 and the price percentile was 27, placing the valuation record in a context that cannot be assessed further without range endpoints.
Capex / operating cash flow0.69→flatvs prior period
FCF conversion1.51→flatvs prior period
Figures as of Aug 25, 2026 · end-of-day snapshot
Volatility-linked pattern The correlation with the VIX is negative at -0.59 over 3-month and -0.53 over 1-year windows, while the correlation with the US 10-year Treasury yield is modestly negative at -0.21 and -0.18. These are co-movement relationships, not evidence that either series causes the stock's returns.
Ownership and short interest Short interest is limited relative to trading coverage, with a short ratio of 1.61 and short percent of float of 1.9%. Institutional ownership is 43.7% and insider ownership is 17.8%, indicating participation from both institutional and company insiders.
Constructive breadth backdrop The regional backdrop records 54.9% of stocks above their 200-day average, an advance/decline ratio of 1.25, and net new highs of 228 as of 2026-08-26. This describes generally positive breadth alongside the stock's higher sensitivity to market moves.
Full analysis
The market relationship is broad but not uniform. Correlation with the Consumer discretionary sector ETF is 0.72 over 3-month and 0.70 over 1-year windows, above the corresponding S&P 500 readings of 0.69 and 0.62. That combination points to a stock with a recognizable sector connection, while still retaining substantial company-specific variation because correlation remains below 1.00.
The Nasdaq relationships reinforce the growth and equity-market sensitivity visible in the data. Correlations with the Nasdaq Composite are 0.70 over 3-month and 0.68 over 1-year windows, compared with 0.68 and 0.67 for the Nasdaq-100 ETF. The relatively narrow difference between windows indicates that this market character has been fairly stable. With beta at 1.83, broad-market advances and declines have a potentially larger effect on daily price movement than they would for a lower-beta stock, without implying a particular direction.
The negative VIX correlations, -0.59 over 3-month and -0.53 over 1-year windows, identify a consistent inverse co-movement with the volatility index. The Treasury-yield relationship is weaker, at -0.21 and -0.18, so rate co-movement is present but less pronounced in this snapshot. Over the past year, the stock experienced a drawdown from its 1-year high of -29.8 and annualized volatility of 46.7%, providing descriptive context for the elevated beta.
Ownership and breadth add context rather than a directional conclusion. Short ratio is 1.61, short percent of float is 1.9%, institutional ownership is 43.7%, and insider ownership is 17.8%. Against that positioning, regional breadth was 54.9% above the 200-day average, with an advance/decline ratio of 1.25 and net new highs of 228 as of 2026-08-26.
Instrumentr · 3mr · 1ystability
S&P 5000.690.62stable across windows
Consumer discretionary sector ETF (XLY)0.720.70stable across windows
VIX volatility index−0.59−0.53stable across windows
US 10-year Treasury yield−0.21−0.18stable across windows
Nasdaq Composite0.700.68stable across windows
Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ)0.680.67stable across windows
Quality factor ETF (QUAL)0.640.53stable across windows
Beta1.83vs the market
Short ratio1.61days to cover
Short interest1.94%of float
Market backdrop: 55% of US stocks above their 200-day average · advance/decline ratio 1.25 · +228 net new highs (as of Aug 26, 2026)
Correlation of daily returns over the last 3 months (63 sessions). Correlation describes co-movement, not causation. As of Aug 22, 2026.
Full analysis
The participation picture is mixed rather than uniformly forceful. One-day relative volume at 0.78x and a volume z-score of -0.8 describe a quieter latest session, while 3-day relative volume at 1.12x and 5-day relative volume at 1.02x place the recent multi-session activity near the 50-day median. The 20-day volume rank of 36.8% reinforces that the latest activity has not been unusually high within the recent distribution.
Money flow adds a constructive element, with Chaikin money flow at 0.12. However, the 50-day up/down volume ratio of 0.93 indicates that volume has not been tilted toward advancing sessions over that longer window. The combination points to some positive closing-position pressure without a broad, sustained imbalance in session volume.
The durability question rests on whether participation expands or fades. A continuation of activity around 1.12x and 1.02x, alongside a positive 0.12 money-flow reading, would indicate that the recent move is retaining engagement near normal turnover. A fade toward 0.78x, or continued readings below the 50-day median, would instead describe reduced participation and leave the move more dependent on price action than expanding activity.
The structural evidence remains restrained: elevated-volume days were 0, daily float turnover was 1.1%, and the stealth-accumulation flag was false. Over the past year, 83 volume-spike episodes occurred at 2x+ the 50-day median, after which the median 3-month move was 3.6%, with a positive 3-month share of 61%. That history describes prior episodes, while the current snapshot does not show a comparable spike.
No stealth accumulation pattern0 day(s) of elevated volume in the recent window
Volume rank (20d percentile)37th
Chaikin money flow (20)0.12
Up/down volume ratio (50d)0.93
Relative volume (1d)0.78×vs 50d median
Relative volume (3d)1.12×vs 50d median
Relative volume (5d)1.02×vs 50d median
Volume z-score (1d)-0.78std devs
Volume z-score (3d)0.41std devs
Float turnover1.05%of float traded
Median volume (50d)38,215,650shares
Median $ volume (50d)$13.39Bdollars
VPD score155.52vol-price divergence
Institutional ownership43.73%of shares held
Insider ownership17.82%of shares held
Inferred from volume microstructure, not holdings filings.
Perspectives
How different investors read this
The same report, read from different investor horizons: what each would count for its case, and what each would count against it.
Long-term holder
Add or trim?
Supporting evidence
Revenue expansion base Long-term holders point to revenue growth of 25.5% and revenue of 103.6B as evidence of substantial top-line expansion. Over a multi-year horizon, the business case depends on that growth translating into stronger operating and bottom-line returns rather than remaining isolated from earnings.
Cash and liquidity cushion Long-term holders point to free cash flow of 5.8B, FCF conversion of 1.51, debt-to-equity of 18.4, and a current ratio of 1.94. Those figures describe cash generation and balance-sheet capacity that can matter over several years, although they do not by themselves resolve the profitability profile.
Crowd cited expansion Investors on X argue that Tesla received full Nevada permit authorizing up to 5,000 robotaxis across the state, and that Optimus is advancing toward mass production with suppliers locked in and Cybercab targeting 2M units/year. These are unverified investor claims, so their multi-year relevance rests on whether the cited capacity and product developments become observable business results.
Opposing evidence
Thin earnings conversion The 1.4% operating margin, 3.7% profit margin, 4.7% return on equity, and 1.9% return on assets point to limited conversion of the revenue base into operating profit and capital returns. Long-term holders would weigh whether those measures improve, because sustained growth without better conversion leaves the quality of expansion unresolved.
Demanding earnings multiple A trailing P/E of 285.5, forward P/E of 140.2, and EV/EBITDA of 111.8 leave the valuation closely tied to future improvement from current earnings output. The relationship is especially demanding alongside earnings growth of -3%, so multi-year business progress would need to be assessed against both profitability and the existing valuation.
Crowd cited short case Investors on X argue that Michael Burry maintains short positions on TSLA alongside broader tech and AI names, citing concerns over circular financing in AI demand. This is an unverified investor argument, and it represents a challenge to the durability of the business narrative rather than a measured conclusion about operating results.
Evidence from this report, not a recommendation.
Short-term trader
Enter or wait?
Supporting evidence
Improving recent momentum Short-term traders point to MACD at -1.73 versus its signal line at -6.86, stochastic %K at 68.1, and a 10-day rate of change at 5.24%. Together, those readings describe an upward recent move without an extreme momentum reading, leaving the immediate price structure dependent on follow-through.
Support remains nearby The last close at 350.25 remains above the primary support area of ~335–343 and the 20-day EMA at 343.46. Traders reading this as a rebound structure would distinguish continued positioning above that area from a close below it, which would shift attention toward lower historical clusters.
Normal recent participation Three-day relative volume at 1.12x and 5-day relative volume at 1.02x place broader recent activity near the 50-day median, while Chaikin money flow at 0.12 indicates a positive money-flow balance. That combination describes engagement without a sustained participation surge, so price continuation and volume expansion remain separate conditions.
Opposing evidence
Measured trend signal The measured record lists a sell signal for trend structure: the last close at 350.25 is below both the 50-day average at 363.73 and the 200-day at 402.28475. The most recent 50/200 cross was bearish, 139 days ago, keeping the overhead averages central to the short-term read.
Resistance cluster overhead Immediate resistance is concentrated around ~360–364, with the 50-day moving average at 363.73 and upper Bollinger band at 364.31 nearby. A reversal below that zone would leave the moving-average structure unresolved, while a move through it would bring the secondary resistance area of ~374–396 into focus.
Participation remains restrained One-day relative volume at 0.78x, volume z-score at -0.8, and 20-day volume rank at 36.8% describe subdued latest participation. The 50-day up/down volume ratio of 0.93, 0 days of elevated volume, and a false stealth-accumulation flag provide limited evidence of broad participation behind the recent price move.
Evidence from this report, not a recommendation.
Not yet invested
Start or skip?
Supporting evidence
Top-line and cash evidence Prospective investors point to revenue growth of 25.5%, free cash flow of 5.8B, and FCF conversion of 1.51 as evidence combining business expansion with current cash generation. This gives the starting-point assessment a business dimension beyond price, while the difference between revenue growth and earnings growth remains relevant to how durable that evidence is.
Market breadth backdrop The surrounding market shows 54.9% of stocks above their 200-day average, an advance/decline ratio of 1.25, and net new highs of 228 as of 2026-08-26. Prospective investors would read this as a constructive breadth setting, while beta of 1.83 indicates that the stock's starting point remains sensitive to broader market movement.
Crowd cited milestones Investors on X cite a Cybercab launch on September 3, inauguration of a new Semi factory in Nevada in the Next month, and a 2026 Summer Update with Grok and FSD features rolling out as Ongoing. These are unverified investor claims, so they describe the developments being discussed around a potential starting point rather than confirmed business evidence.
Opposing evidence
Profitability constraint Prospective investors would note the 1.4% operating margin, 3.7% profit margin, and earnings growth of -3% despite revenue growth of 25.5%. The figures show that the business is growing sales without matching earnings progression, making future margin and earnings conversion important to the starting-point assessment.
Valuation tension The trailing P/E of 285.5, forward P/E of 140.2, price-to-sales of 11.9, and PEG ratio of 4.56 describe a valuation relationship that is demanding relative to current earnings output. That tension matters before a position exists because the business evidence and the price context need to be read together rather than separately.
Mixed price history The last close at 350.25 sits against a 52-week high of 498.83 and a 52-week low of 297.38, while the 3-month return is -20.46% and the 1-year return is 1.05%. Prospective investors would treat those figures as descriptive starting-point context, with the recent 1-month return of 13.27% showing that shorter and longer return windows tell different stories.
Looking ahead
What has to go right?
What would need to stay true
Next earnings information The next earnings date is 2026-10-21, creating a defined point when updated operating results would become observable. For the current picture to keep developing, the update would need to add clarity to the relationship between revenue growth of 25.5%, earnings growth of -3%, operating margin of 1.4%, and profit margin of 3.7%.
Crowd cited permit condition Investors on X cite Nevada Autonomous Vehicle Network Company permit approval for up to 5,000 robotaxis in the Next 30 days. As an unverified investor claim, it represents a condition discussed by the crowd that would need to become observable rather than an established event in this read.
Crowd cited product timing Investors on X cite a Cybercab launch on September 3 and the inauguration of a new Semi factory in Nevada in the Next month. These remain unverified investor claims, so the forward condition is tied to whether the cited timing becomes observable alongside the scheduled fundamental update.
What could undercut it
Earnings quality pressure The current relationship includes earnings growth of -3% against revenue growth of 25.5%, with operating margin at 1.4% and profit margin at 3.7%. The forward picture could be undercut if subsequent information does not clarify how sales expansion translates into earnings and operating profitability.
Valuation sensitivity A trailing P/E of 285.5 and forward P/E of 140.2 leave the forward narrative sensitive to changes in earnings output. EV/EBITDA of 111.8 against EBITDA of 12B adds another measure requiring continued business improvement for the current valuation relationship to remain intact.
Crowd cited financing concern Investors on X argue that Michael Burry maintains short positions on TSLA alongside broader tech and AI names, citing concerns over circular financing in AI demand. This is an unverified counter-argument, and it identifies a discussion risk that could undercut the forward narrative if the cited concern becomes relevant to how demand is interpreted.
What X is saying
Voices, catalysts and arguments from public X discussion over the last 90 days: crowd opinion, not analysis.
X chatter on TSLA over the last 90 days is predominantly upbeat, centered on product milestones, regulatory wins and institutional accumulation, with limited counter-narrative from short-focused accounts.