Sep 11, 2025Close · −0.9% over this periodSep 11, 2026
What bulls would say
Short-term average support Bulls point to the last close at 363.56 remaining above the 50-day moving average at 357.95 and the 20-day EMA at 351.83, framing the recent pullback as a price position above nearby trend references.
Positive momentum alignment Bulls point to MACD at 3.66 above its signal line at 0.73 and +DI at 29.5 above -DI at 18.6, while the last MACD flip was bullish 34 days ago.
What bears would say
Long-term average overhead Bears would counter that the last close at 363.56 remains below the 200-day moving average at 399.56, leaving the longer-term reference above the current price and near the derived ~375–400 resistance zone.
Softer broader momentum Bears would note weekly RSI at 45.7, stochastic %K at 43.4, and a 10-day rate of change of -2.42%, alongside ADX at 22.8, which describes limited trend strength rather than a firmly established directional move.
AI read
Neutral momentum mix RSI is 50.9 and stochastic %K is 43.4, while weekly RSI is 45.7 and the 10-day rate of change is -2.42%, describing balanced momentum with a softer recent tone. MACD at 3.66 remains above its signal line at 0.73, but ADX at 22.8 indicates only modest trend strength.
Current price cluster The last close at 363.56 sits inside a derived ~348–368 zone, where recent closes cluster and the 50-day moving average at 357.95 and 20-day EMA at 351.83 provide nearby reference levels. A close remaining above this area would keep the short-term rebound structure intact, while a move below it would refocus attention on lower support.
Immediate resistance ~375–400 The derived ~375–400 area is supported by repeated closes near 375–400 and includes the 200-day moving average at 399.56. A move above it would place the recovery closer to the longer-term average, while rejection below it would leave the price within the recent range.
Lower support ~307–324 The derived ~307–324 zone reflects the concentrated July and early August lows and overlaps the lower Bollinger band at 323.65. A break below the current price cluster would make this area relevant, while remaining above it would preserve the broader 52-week range between 297.38 and 498.83.
Volatility remains material ATR is 15.34, or 4.2% of the close, so ordinary moves can span a meaningful portion of the nearby level map. The current RSI and stochastic readings do not describe an extended condition, while +DI at 29.5 remains above -DI at 18.6.
Full analysis
The technical picture is mixed rather than strongly directional. The last close at 363.56 is above the 50-day moving average at 357.95 and the 20-day EMA at 351.83, but remains below the 200-day moving average at 399.56. That places the price in a short-term recovery area inside a still unresolved longer-term structure.
Momentum gives both sides of the read. MACD at 3.66 is above the signal line at 0.73, and +DI at 29.5 exceeds -DI at 18.6. However, ADX at 22.8 points to limited trend strength, while weekly RSI at 45.7, stochastic %K at 43.4, and a 10-day rate of change of -2.42% show that the recent advance has not produced broad momentum acceleration. ATR at 15.34 and 4.2% of the close also leaves room for sizeable movement around nearby levels.
The level map centers on the derived ~348–368 zone, where recent closes cluster and the short-term averages sit. Remaining above this area would keep the immediate rebound structure intact; a close below it would bring the derived ~307–324 support zone, including the lower Bollinger band at 323.65, back into focus. Above, the derived ~375–400 area combines repeated closes with the 200-day average at 399.56. A move above that zone would change the level structure, while failure beneath it would keep the price below the longer-term reference.
Over the past year, overbought RSI episodes happened 4 times, after which the median 3-month return was -10 and the positive 3-month share was 50. Over the past year, MACD flips happened 14 bullish times and 13 bearish times, with the last flip bullish 34 days ago. These observations describe the measured history rather than a forward path.
Fields this section was written from
ticker
name
exchange
sector
industry
market_cap
next_earnings_date
last_close
ret_1d
ret_1w
ret_1m
ret_3m
ret_ytd
ret_1y
high_52w
low_52w
rsi_14
macd
macd_signal
sma_50
sma_200
ema_20
bb_upper
bb_lower
adx_14
plus_di
minus_di
atr_14
stoch_k
roc_10
signal_tier
alert_level
Plus the daily close history, the price bands and computed signals derived from it, and the past-year episode statistics computed from the same history. That is the whole input: the model is instructed to use no outside knowledge of the company, and to copy every figure in the read from the data it was handed.
Report
The read at a glance
Short term
weeks
Momentum positive
RSI 51
Mid term
months
Downtrend
Price 9.0% below the 200-day MA.
Long term
business quality
Solid
P/E: Elevated multiple.
Volume signalTier C: Baseline
What bulls would say
Revenue and cash generation Bulls point to revenue growth of 25.5% alongside free cash flow of 5.8B and FCF conversion of 1.51, framing expansion as accompanied by cash generation above net income of 3.8B.
Balance-sheet cushion Bulls point to debt-to-equity of 18.4 and a current ratio of 1.94 as evidence of limited leverage and meaningful liquidity, providing a counterweight to the modest ROE of 4.7% and ROA of 1.9%.
What bears would say
Thin earnings conversion Bears would counter that earnings growth is -3% despite revenue growth of 25.5%, while the 1.4% operating margin and 3.7% profit margin indicate limited profitability depth beneath the 18.9% gross margin.
Valuation sensitivity Bears would note a trailing P/E of 285.5, EV/EBITDA of 111.8, and PEG ratio of 4.56, arguing that the valuation remains sensitive to improvement that is not yet reflected in earnings growth of -3%.
Business quality and valuation Revenue growth of 25.5% is paired with earnings growth of -3%, while the 1.4% operating margin and 3.7% profit margin show limited earnings depth. A trailing P/E of 285.5 and forward P/E of 140.2 leave the valuation read closely tied to future improvement.
Immediate price structure The last close at 363.56 remains above the 50-day moving average at 357.95 and the 20-day EMA at 351.83, but below the 200-day moving average at 399.56. Remaining above the ~348–368 area preserves the short-term recovery structure, while a close below it brings the ~307–324 zone back into focus.
Earnings checkpoint ahead The next earnings date is 2026-10-21, creating a defined point for reassessing the gap between revenue growth of 25.5% and earnings growth of -3%. The observable question is whether cash generation of 5.8B remains accompanied by stronger earnings conversion.
Market sensitivity and participation A beta of 1.84 and annualized volatility of 46.8 describe a market-sensitive return profile. Confirmation from trading activity remains limited by 0 days of elevated volume, a 20-day volume rank of 15.8%, and a 50-day up/down volume ratio of 0.84.
Full analysis
The central tension is between strong top-line expansion and thin profitability. Revenue growth is 25.5%, while earnings growth is -3%; free cash flow of 5.8B exceeds net income of 3.8B, yet the 18.9% gross margin narrows to a 1.4% operating margin and a 3.7% profit margin. Debt-to-equity of 18.4 and a current ratio of 1.94 provide a comparatively stronger balance-sheet read than the return measures, but the trailing P/E of 285.5 and forward P/E of 140.2 keep valuation sensitive to earnings progress.
The price structure is similarly unresolved. The last close at 363.56 is above the 50-day moving average at 357.95 and the 20-day EMA at 351.83, while remaining below the 200-day moving average at 399.56. The ~348–368 cluster is therefore the immediate reference area, with the ~375–400 zone overhead and the ~307–324 area relevant if the current cluster fails. Over the past year, overbought RSI episodes happened 4 times, after which the median 3-month return was -10 and the positive 3-month share was 50.
In its own recent range, the last close at 363.56 sits against a 52-week high of 498.83 and a 52-week low of 297.38. The return series is mixed: 1-month return is 9.24%, versus a 3-month return of -10.55%, year-to-date return of -17.01%, and 1-year return of 4.53%. Investors on X argue that Cybercab based on existing FSD enables near-term Japan rollout in 2026, while other investors on X cite a short-term audit following the Cybercab event as downside risk. Investors on X also point to Model Y Performance release in China at competitive pricing, while bearish discussion cites competition from UBER in the robotaxi space.
The forward read remains conditional. If the price remains above the ~348–368 area and activity broadens beyond 0 days of elevated volume, the short-term structure would retain measurable confirmation; a close below that area alongside subdued participation would leave the ~307–324 zone relevant. The 2026-10-21 earnings date provides a reassessment point for the 25.5% revenue growth and -3% earnings growth gap, while the 285.5 trailing P/E, 1.4% operating margin, annualized volatility of 46.8, and beta of 1.84 remain conditions that could undercut a constructive interpretation if they persist.
StrengthGrowth & qualityMostly positive profitability and growth votes across available metrics.
CautionTop risk flaggedValuation remains demanding, with a trailing P/E of 285.5, forward P/E of 140.2, and EV/EBITDA of 111.8, leaving the read sensitive to earnings progress.
Return · 1m
+9.24%
RSI · 14
50.9
vs 200-day avg
−9.01%
P/E · TTM
285.51×
Next earnings
Oct 21, 2026
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally.
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Automotive; and Energy Generation and Storage. The company offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits; and non-warranty maintenance services and collision, automotive insurance services, as well as part sales and retail merchandise sale. It also provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla Superchargers, and in-app upgrades; purchase financing and leasing services; services for electric vehicles through its company-owned service locations and Tesla mobile service technicians; and vehicle limited warranties and extended service plans. In addition, the company engages in the design, manufacture, installation, sale, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and utilities through its website, stores, and galleries, as well as through a network of channel partners. Further, it provides services and repairs to its energy product customers, including under warranty and extended service plans; and various financing options to its residential customers; lithium-ion battery energy storage products, such as Powerwall and Megapack; energy generation products, including solar panels and solar roof; self-driving development and artificial intelligence software, vehicle control and infotainment software, and battery and powertrain. The company was formerly known as Tesla Motors, Inc. and changed its name to Tesla, Inc. in February 2017. Tesla, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Tesla designs and manufactures electric vehicles (its largest but declining revenue source), while pivoting toward AI-driven autonomy via its robotaxi/FSD platform, the Optimus humanoid robot, and a fast-growing, high-margin energy generation and storage (Megapack/solar) business.
Episodes from the past year for this stock: what price did in the weeks after each signal fired. Descriptive of the past, not a forecast.
matched the baseline
After daily RSI rose above 70 (4 episodes), the median 3-month move was −10.00%; 2 of 4 episodes were positive over 3 months; the baseline over all sessions was −2.07%.
median 1-month move: −2.40%
beat the stock's own baseline
After a volume spike (96 episodes), the median 3-month move was +2.10%; 54 of 96 episodes were positive over 3 months; the baseline over all sessions was −2.07%.
median 1-month move: +2.50%
volume 2x+ the 50-day median
1 upward and 1 downward 50/200-day crosses in the period; most recent: downward 50/200-day cross, 155 days ago.
Historical episodes over the past year: descriptive, not predictive. Past patterns do not determine future moves.
Episodes as of Sep 11, 2026
Signals
Signals & levels
Buy and sell signals computed from this stock's own price history; each one shows the sessions it was measured over and what followed them. Descriptive of the past, not a prediction and not advice.
No band or indicator condition cleared its evidence threshold in this window. The bands below still show what followed past sessions at each level.
What followed sessions that closed in each price band
Median move after those sessions at four forward horizons, with the number of measured windows that ended higher.
Price band
Sessions closed
1 month
3 months
6 months
1 year
~415.35–452.62
106
−4.35%29/106, did not clear the evidence test for colour
−9.55%24/103, did not clear the evidence test for colour
−14.41%5/86, did not clear the evidence test for colour
+7.65%11/12, did not clear the evidence test for colour
~378.08–415.35
103
−6.76%31/103, did not clear the evidence test for colour
−4.09%31/82, did not clear the evidence test for colour
−16.17%6/53, did not clear the evidence test for colour
+8.67%24/24, did not clear the evidence test for colour
~340.82–378.08now
79
+6.21%38/61, did not clear the evidence test for colour
Last close 363.56 sits in the ~340.82–378.08 band.
Figures shown in grey did not clear the evidence test set out below: they matched this stock's own baseline, or they rest on too few non-overlapping windows to be tested at all. The counts beside each figure are the windows actually measured.
Across every session in the window, the median 3-month move was +3.67% over 485 measured windows. That is the bar each band is held to.
Colour marks a band whose forward record differed from this stock's own baseline by at least 20.02 or below in a random-draw test, with the same gap in both halves of the window: green where the band did better than holding the stock, red where it did reliably worse. A figure stays grey for one of three reasons: it matched the baseline, it rests on too few independent windows, or the window was too short to test the level in both halves. The last of those is why the 1-year column is almost never coloured on a two-year window.
35 band and rule tests were run on this page; at that count one or two spurious results are normal by chance alone, which is why colour needs the baseline test, not a threshold.
Signals are statistical summaries of what followed similar past sessions for this stock. Past behaviour does not determine future results, and nothing here is a recommendation or personal advice.
Measured over 549 sessions, 2024-07-05 to 2026-09-11.
Catalysts & risks
What could move the read
The next known event on the calendar and the risk factors the AI narrative flags, each paired with the figure behind it where one exists.
Next earningsScheduled for Oct 21, 2026, in 39 days.
What bulls would say
Earnings reassessment date Bulls point to the next earnings date of 2026-10-21 as a defined calendar point for assessing whether revenue growth of 25.5% is accompanied by improved earnings performance.
Cash conversion cushion Bulls point to free cash flow of 5.8B exceeding net income of 3.8B, alongside FCF conversion of 1.51, as evidence of cash generation that is stronger than the reported profit figure.
Historical participation context Bulls point to 93 volume-spike episodes over the past year, after which the median 3-month move was 2.1% and the positive 3-month share was 57%, as measured historical context for renewed activity.
What bears would say
High earnings valuation Bears would counter that the trailing P/E is 285.5, the forward P/E is 140.2, and the PEG ratio is 4.56, keeping the valuation read highly sensitive to future improvement.
Thin operating returns Bears would note the 1.4% operating margin, 3.7% profit margin, ROE of 4.7%, and ROA of 1.9% as evidence of limited profitability depth beneath the 18.9% gross margin.
Historical RSI downside Bears would point to 4 overbought RSI episodes over the past year, after which the median 3-month return was -10 and the positive 3-month share was 50.
AI read
Scheduled earnings date The next earnings date is 2026-10-21. The calendar provides a defined point for reassessing the gap between revenue growth of 25.5% and earnings growth of -3%.
Social sentiment
What X is saying
Voices, catalysts and arguments from public X discussion over the last 90 days: crowd opinion, not analysis.
Bullish
X chatter on TSLA over the last 90 days centers on product launches, FSD progress and international expansion with a predominantly positive tone from influential accounts tracking news and deployments. Bullish voices highlight Cybercab tours, Model Y releases and FSD timelines while bearish notes focus on short-term price reactions and competition risks. Discussions reference X posts about robotaxi events, charging prices and analyst commentary.
Discussion themes
Cybercab and robotaxi deployments in Japan and USFSD supervised performance and rollout timelinesModel Y Performance China launch and deliveriesSupercharger pricing and infrastructure updatesOptimus and AI/robotics growth potential
“TESLA JAPAN CEO: “Cybercab is based on FSD, just like the currently available Model Y, so the domestic rollout is not something for the distant future.””
Fundamentals
Fundamentals & valuation
Trailing profitability, cash generation, growth, leverage and the full valuation set.
Solid
What bulls would say
Revenue expansion Bulls point to revenue growth of 25.5% alongside free cash flow of 5.8B and FCF conversion of 1.51 as evidence that top-line expansion is accompanied by cash generation.
Lower forward multiple Bulls point to a forward P/E of 140.2 versus a trailing P/E of 285.5, while debt-to-equity of 18.4 and a current ratio of 1.94 describe a relatively light leverage and adequate liquidity profile.
What bears would say
Earnings pressure Bears would counter that earnings growth is -3% despite revenue growth of 25.5%, with an operating margin of 1.4%, profit margin of 3.7%, ROE of 4.7%, and ROA of 1.9%.
Valuation burden Bears would note a trailing P/E of 285.5, price-to-sales of 11.9, EV/EBITDA of 111.8, and PEG ratio of 4.56 alongside earnings growth of -3%.
AI read
Thin operating profitability The 18.9% gross margin narrows to a 1.4% operating margin and a 3.7% profit margin, while ROE of 4.7% and ROA of 1.9% indicate modest returns on capital and assets.
Growth meets cash conversion Revenue growth of 25.5% contrasts with earnings growth of -3%, but free cash flow of 5.8B exceeds net income of 3.8B and FCF conversion is 1.51.
Leverage and liquidity Debt-to-equity of 18.4 and a current ratio of 1.94 describe limited balance-sheet leverage alongside a meaningful current-asset cushion.
Valuation versus earnings A trailing P/E of 285.5, forward P/E of 140.2, price-to-book of 14.2, price-to-sales of 11.9, EV/EBITDA of 111.8, and PEG ratio of 4.56 place substantial valuation weight on future improvement.
Market context
Correlations & market neighborhood
How this stock's daily returns have co-moved with the benchmark, its sector, rates and peers: descriptive co-movement, not causation.
tends to move with the S&P 500
What bulls would say
Persistent benchmark linkage Bulls point to correlations of 0.67 with the S&P 500 and 0.70 with the Nasdaq Composite over 3 months, alongside 1-year readings of 0.61 and 0.65, as evidence of durable participation in broad equity movements.
Limited short positioning Bulls point to short percent of float at 2% and a short ratio of 1.82, describing a comparatively contained measured short-interest position. They also cite institutional ownership of 43.7% and insider ownership of 17.8%.
Sector alignment Bulls point to correlation with the Consumer discretionary sector ETF of 0.66 over both 3 months and 1 year, arguing that the stock's sector-linked trading pattern has remained stable across the measured windows.
What bears would say
Amplified market sensitivity Bears would counter that beta of 1.84 indicates materially elevated sensitivity to broad-market movements, while the 3-month correlation of 0.67 with the S&P 500 leaves the stock exposed to equity-wide swings.
Volatility co-movement Bears would note the -0.52 correlation with the VIX volatility index over 3 months and -0.51 over 1 year, framing the stable inverse relationship as evidence that volatility-regime changes have been an important part of the trading profile.
Weak breadth backdrop Bears would cite 47.9% of regional stocks above the 200-day average, an advance/decline ratio of 0.50, and net new highs of 11 as a less supportive breadth setting. They would also note institutional ownership of 43.7% as a sizeable ownership concentration.
Accumulation
What kept showing up, and on which days
Price tells you where the stock ended. This section shows how hard it was traded to get there, session by session, measured against this stock's own baseline rather than someone else's.
No unusual volume pattern
What bulls would say
Positive money flow Bulls point to Chaikin money flow of 0.11 as evidence of net buying pressure, alongside 5-day relative volume of 1.41x, which marks greater activity than the one-day reading.
Room for participation Bulls point to 3-day relative volume of 1.1x and a 50-day median volume of 34.3M shares as a base from which broader activity could be assessed if elevated participation appears.
What bears would say
Low recent activity Bears would counter that one-day relative volume is 0.86x, the volume z-score is -0.6, and the 20-day volume rank is 15.8%, showing that recent sessions remain quiet versus the comparison period.
Uneven pressure balance Bears would note the 50-day up/down volume ratio of 0.84, 0 days of elevated volume, daily float turnover of 1%, and a false stealth accumulation flag as limited evidence of sustained accumulation.
AI read
Recent activity subdued One-day relative volume is 0.86x, with a volume z-score of -0.6 and a 20-day volume rank of 15.8%, placing recent activity below the prevailing 50-day norm. The 3-day reading of 1.1x and 5-day reading of 1.41x show some pickup across the wider window, but not a consistently elevated pattern.
Mixed money-flow signals Chaikin money flow at 0.11 indicates net buying pressure in the measured period, while the 50-day up/down volume ratio of 0.84 shows down-volume has been heavier than up-volume. Together, the readings describe positive accumulation pressure alongside an uneven participation balance.
−0.23%28/57, did not clear the evidence test for colour
+14.36%28/40, did not clear the evidence test for colour
+20.04%37/38, did not clear the evidence test for colour
~303.56–340.82
86
+8.84%62/82, did not clear the evidence test for colour
+28.48%59/69, did not clear the evidence test for colour
+27.63%64/69, did not clear the evidence test for colour
+15.92%60/69, did not clear the evidence test for colour
~266.29–303.56
37
+6.85%29/37, did not clear the evidence test for colour
+17.02%36/36, did not clear the evidence test for colour
+49.74%36/36, did not clear the evidence test for colour
+38.46%36/36, did not clear the evidence test for colour
~229.02–266.29
65
+1.74%37/65, did not clear the evidence test for colour
+36.47%54/65, did not clear the evidence test for colour
+52.97%61/65, did not clear the evidence test for colour
+61.2%65/65, did not clear the evidence test for colour
~191.76–229.02
48
+11.81%41/48, did not clear the evidence test for colour
+61.29%47/48, did not clear the evidence test for colour
+39.19%47/48, did not clear the evidence test for colour
+65.37%48/48, did not clear the evidence test for colour
Historical volume episodes Over the past year, 93 volume-spike episodes occurred at volume 2x+ the 50-day median, after which the median 3-month move was 2.1% and the positive 3-month share was 57%.
Historical RSI episodes Over the past year, overbought RSI episodes happened 4 times, after which the median 3-month return was -10 and the positive 3-month share was 50.
Crowd-cited positive events Investors on X cite a Cybercab Japan tour and FSD launch priority in September 2026, Model Y Performance China deliveries over the Next 2 weeks, and FSD supervised videos and expansions as ongoing discussion topics.
Crowd-cited negative events Investors on X cite an audit on Cybercab launch over the Next 1-2 months and competition from UBER in the robotaxi space as ongoing discussion topics.
Full analysis
The clearest dated item is the next earnings date of 2026-10-21. It sits against a mixed operating picture: revenue growth is 25.5%, while earnings growth is -3%. Free cash flow of 5.8B exceeds net income of 3.8B, but the 1.4% operating margin and 3.7% profit margin leave the earnings conversion question central to that calendar point.
Historical activity offers context without establishing a forward path. Over the past year, 93 volume-spike episodes occurred at volume 2x+ the 50-day median, after which the median 3-month move was 2.1% and the positive 3-month share was 57%. Separately, overbought RSI episodes happened 4 times, after which the median 3-month return was -10 and the positive 3-month share was 50. These episodes describe measured outcomes following prior conditions, not forecasts for the next report or period.
Crowd discussion adds event references but not confirmed company facts. Investors on X cite a Cybercab Japan tour and FSD launch priority in September 2026, Model Y Performance China deliveries over the Next 2 weeks, and FSD supervised videos and expansions as positive topics. The same discussion cites an audit on Cybercab launch over the Next 1-2 months and competition from UBER in the robotaxi space as negative topics.
The broader catalyst read remains conditional on observable confirmation. Sustained activity above the 50-day median alongside improved participation would provide a different volume context from the current 0 days of elevated volume, while continued subdued activity would leave the historical spike statistics as context rather than present-tense confirmation.
Valuation remains demanding, with a trailing P/E of 285.5, forward P/E of 140.2, and EV/EBITDA of 111.8, leaving the read sensitive to earnings progress.Next earnings: in 39 days
Profitability is narrow, with an 18.9% gross margin narrowing to a 1.4% operating margin and a 3.7% profit margin, while earnings growth is -3%.Next earnings: in 39 days
Annualized volatility was 46.8 and beta is 1.84, indicating meaningful realized variability and elevated sensitivity to broad-market moves.ATR, % of price: 4.2%
Participation confirmation is limited by 0 days of elevated volume, a 20-day volume rank of 15.8%, and a 50-day up/down volume ratio of 0.84.
“$TSLA Has been on a solid uptrend since the earnings gap down and launched the cybercab which immediately got slapped with an audit causing the sell off on Friday.”
Positive catalysts
Cybercab Japan tour and FSD launch prioritySeptember 2026
Model Y Performance China deliveriesNext 2 weeks
FSD supervised videos and expansionsOngoing
Negative catalysts
Audit on Cybercab launchNext 1-2 months
Competition from UBER in robotaxi spaceOngoing
What bulls on X argue
Cybercab based on existing FSD enables near-term Japan rollout in 2026
Model Y Performance release in China at competitive pricing drives volume
Supercharger pricing as low as 0.20 €/kWh in Germany boosts adoption
FSD videos from Slovenia and China show real-world capability gains
What bears on X argue
Robotaxi app launch pressures UBER valuation and market share
Short-term audit following Cybercab event creates downside risk
Analysts remain focused on vehicle deliveries rather than autonomy upside
Sourced from public X posts · generated Sep 11, 2026 · quotes are third-party opinions from X users, not statements or advice from FullStockData.
Capital allocation visibility Capex to operating cash flow is 0.69, but prior-period capex intensity, FCF conversion, share-count change, and buyback yield are n/a, limiting the multi-quarter direction-of-travel read.
Full analysis
The profitability profile is narrow beneath the gross margin. An 18.9% gross margin becomes a 1.4% operating margin and a 3.7% profit margin, leaving only 3.8B of net income on 103.6B of revenue. ROE of 4.7% and ROA of 1.9% add a capital-efficiency lens: reported profitability is positive, but the returns generated on equity and assets remain modest.
Growth is mixed rather than uniform. Revenue growth of 25.5% provides a substantial top-line expansion figure, while earnings growth of -3% shows that the expansion has not translated into year-over-year earnings growth. Cash generation is a counterpoint, with free cash flow of 5.8B above net income of 3.8B and FCF conversion at 1.51. Capex to operating cash flow at 0.69 also indicates that a portion of operating cash flow is being directed toward capital spending, although the prior-period comparison is n/a.
The balance sheet presents a different profile from the earnings figures. Debt-to-equity of 18.4 is restrained relative to the current ratio of 1.94, giving the financial-resilience read more support from liquidity and leverage than from return metrics. The absence of share-count change and buyback yield data, both n/a, limits conclusions about shareholder capital allocation across quarters.
Valuation remains tightly linked to the earnings outlook. The trailing P/E of 285.5 is well above the forward P/E of 140.2, while price-to-book of 14.2, price-to-sales of 11.9, EV/EBITDA of 111.8, and PEG of 4.56 keep the market-implied growth requirement prominent. Over the past year, the current P/E was 285.5 at a price percentile of 36 within its 1-year range, providing historical context without resolving the gap between revenue growth and earnings growth.
Capex / operating cash flow0.69→flatvs prior period
FCF conversion1.51→flatvs prior period
Figures as of Sep 10, 2026 · end-of-day snapshot
Fields this section was written from
ticker
name
exchange
sector
industry
market_cap
next_earnings_date
last_close
ret_1d
ret_1w
ret_1m
ret_3m
ret_ytd
ret_1y
high_52w
low_52w
revenue_ttm
net_income_ttm
ebitda_ttm
gross_margin
operating_margin
profit_margin
roe
roa
debt_to_equity
current_ratio
free_cash_flow
revenue_growth
earnings_growth
eps_ttm
dividend_yield
pe_ttm
forward_pe
price_to_book
price_to_sales
ev_to_ebitda
peg_ratio
shares_change_1y
buyback_yield
capex_to_ocf
capex_to_ocf_prior
fcf_conversion
fcf_conversion_prior
Plus the past-year episode statistics computed from the price history. That is the whole input: the model is instructed to use no outside knowledge of the company, and to copy every figure in the read from the data it was handed.
AI read
Broad market co-movement The stock's 3-month correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.67 and with the Nasdaq Composite was 0.70, indicating substantial alignment with major equity benchmarks. The corresponding 1-year readings of 0.61 and 0.65 show that this market linkage has remained consistent.
Elevated market sensitivity A beta of 1.84 indicates that broad-market movements have historically translated into larger daily-return swings for the stock. Its correlation with the VIX volatility index was -0.52 over 3 months and -0.51 over 1 year, showing a stable inverse co-movement with volatility conditions.
Sector-linked profile Correlation with the Consumer discretionary sector ETF was 0.66 over both 3 months and 1 year, making sector co-movement one of the more stable features of the profile. Correlation with the US 10-year Treasury yield was -0.20 and -0.21 across the same windows, a weaker relationship.
Mixed ownership backdrop Institutional ownership was 43.7% and insider ownership was 17.8%, while short percent of float was 2% and the short ratio was 1.82. The regional backdrop was soft, with 47.9% of regional stocks above the 200-day average and an advance/decline ratio of 0.50.
Full analysis
The return profile is closely connected to broad equity trading, but with above-market sensitivity. The 3-month correlations were 0.67 with the S&P 500, 0.70 with the Nasdaq Composite, and 0.66 with the Consumer discretionary sector ETF. Over 1 year, those readings were 0.61, 0.65, and 0.66. The relatively small changes across windows indicate a persistent, rather than recently emerging, market and sector linkage.
The volatility relationships add a distinct dimension. Correlation with the VIX volatility index was -0.52 over 3 months and -0.51 over 1 year, while correlation with the US 10-year Treasury yield was -0.20 and -0.21. These are co-movement measures, not evidence that any series drives another. A beta of 1.84 places the stock in a higher-sensitivity category, so broad-market swings have historically coincided with amplified daily-return variation.
The ownership and positioning figures present a mixed market posture. Institutional ownership of 43.7% and insider ownership of 17.8% indicate substantial reported ownership outside short positions, while short percent of float was 2% and the short ratio was 1.82. The regional backdrop was also uneven: 47.9% of regional stocks were above the 200-day average, the advance/decline ratio was 0.50, and net new highs were 11.
Over the past year, the drawdown from the 1-year high was -26.3 and annualized volatility was 46.8 on the percentage measures. Those figures describe a wide historical trading range and meaningful realized variability, consistent with the elevated beta, without establishing a forward path.
Instrumentr · 3mr · 1ystability
S&P 5000.670.61stable across windows
Consumer discretionary sector ETF (XLY)0.660.66stable across windows
VIX volatility index−0.52−0.51stable across windows
US 10-year Treasury yield−0.20−0.21stable across windows
Nasdaq Composite0.700.65stable across windows
Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ)0.660.65stable across windows
Quality factor ETF (QUAL)0.570.51stable across windows
Beta1.85vs the market
Short ratio1.82days to cover
Short interest1.96%of float
Market backdrop: 48% of US stocks above their 200-day average · advance/decline ratio 0.50 · +11 net new highs (as of Sep 11, 2026)
Correlation of daily returns over the last 3 months (63 sessions). Correlation describes co-movement, not causation. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Fields this section was written from
ticker
name
exchange
sector
industry
market_cap
next_earnings_date
last_close
ret_1d
ret_1w
ret_1m
ret_3m
ret_ytd
ret_1y
high_52w
low_52w
benchmark_corr_3m
benchmark_corr_1y
corr_sector_key
sector_corr_3m
sector_corr_1y
vix_corr_3m
vix_corr_1y
rates_corr_3m
rates_corr_1y
corr_other_instruments
corr_peers_positive
corr_peers_negative
beta
short_ratio
short_percent_of_float
held_percent_institutions
held_percent_insiders
breadth_pct_above_200ma
breadth_adv_dec_ratio
breadth_net_new_highs
breadth_scan_date
corr_calculated_at
Plus the past-year episode statistics computed from the price history. That is the whole input: the model is instructed to use no outside knowledge of the company, and to copy every figure in the read from the data it was handed.
No elevated-volume run There are 0 days of elevated volume, daily float turnover is 1%, and the stealth accumulation flag is false. This combination points to limited evidence of broad, sustained participation rather than a persistent high-volume campaign.
Spike history provides context Over the past year, volume-spike episodes occurred 93 times at volume 2x+ the 50-day median, after which the median 3-month move was 2.1% and the positive 3-month share was 57%. This is historical context for activity spikes, not a forward-looking conclusion.
Full analysis
Recent participation is relatively quiet by the closest-term measures. One-day relative volume at 0.86x, a volume z-score of -0.6, and a 20-day volume rank of 15.8% indicate that the latest sessions have generally traded below the recent activity norm. The broader readings are firmer, with 3-day relative volume at 1.1x and 5-day relative volume at 1.41x, suggesting a pickup that has not yet translated into uniformly elevated daily turnover.
The money-flow readings are internally mixed. Chaikin money flow at 0.11 records a positive net-pressure reading, but the 50-day up/down volume ratio of 0.84 shows that down-volume has exceeded up-volume across that longer comparison. The combination can describe buying interest that is present without being consistently dominant across sessions. Daily float turnover of 1% also indicates limited day-to-day rotation of the available share base.
There is little evidence here of a sustained participation burst: days of elevated volume are 0, the stealth accumulation flag is false, and the 50-day median volume is 34.3M shares against median dollar volume of 12.5B. If activity continues to rise above the median while money flow remains positive and the up/down ratio improves, the participation backdrop would show greater breadth. If volume fades back toward the median or below it, the recent price move would have less confirmation from trading activity. Over the past year, 93 volume-spike episodes occurred at volume 2x+ the 50-day median, after which the median 3-month move was 2.1%, with a positive 3-month share of 57%.
More volume on down days than up days over the last 50 sessions, while 20-day money flow reads positive. The two readings do not agree, and this report does not pretend they do.
No stealth accumulation pattern0 day(s) of elevated volume in the recent window
Volume rank (20d percentile)16th
Chaikin money flow (20)0.11
Up/down volume ratio (50d)0.84
Relative volume (1d)0.86×vs 50d median
Relative volume (3d)1.10×vs 50d median
Relative volume (5d)1.41×vs 50d median
Volume z-score (1d)-0.65std devs
Volume z-score (3d)0.46std devs
Float turnover1.05%of float traded
Median volume (50d)34,330,100shares
Median $ volume (50d)$12.48Bdollars
VPD score74.50vol-price divergence
Institutional ownership43.73%of shares held
Insider ownership17.82%of shares held
Inferred from volume microstructure, not holdings filings.
Fields this section was written from
ticker
name
exchange
sector
industry
market_cap
next_earnings_date
last_close
ret_1d
ret_1w
ret_1m
ret_3m
ret_ytd
ret_1y
high_52w
low_52w
vol_ratio_1d
vol_ratio_3d
vol_ratio_5d
vol_zscore_1d
vol_rank_20d
days_elevated
cmf_20
ud_volume_ratio_50d
float_turnover
median_volume_50d
median_dollar_volume_50d
stealth_accumulation
Plus the past-year episode statistics computed from the price history. That is the whole input: the model is instructed to use no outside knowledge of the company, and to copy every figure in the read from the data it was handed.
Perspectives
How different investors read thisAll four · 24 points
The same report, read from different investor horizons: what each would count for its case, and what each would count against it.
Revenue and cash generation Long-term holders point to revenue growth of 25.5%, free cash flow of 5.8B, and FCF conversion of 1.51. This combination describes top-line expansion accompanied by cash generation, although its durability remains tied to earnings conversion over a longer horizon.
Balance-sheet cushion Long-term holders point to debt-to-equity of 18.4 and a current ratio of 1.94. The figures describe limited leverage and available current-asset coverage, giving the business case a different support from its modest return metrics.
Crowd-cited expansion claims Investors on X argue that a Cybercab based on existing FSD enables near-term Japan rollout in 2026 and that Model Y Performance release in China at competitive pricing drives volume. These are unverified claims about potential expansion and demand, so their relevance depends on observable delivery or deployment confirmation.
Opposing evidence3
Thin profitability depth Long-term holders would note an 18.9% gross margin narrowing to a 1.4% operating margin and a 3.7% profit margin, while earnings growth is -3%. This shows that revenue growth of 25.5% has not yet produced corresponding earnings growth, leaving the multi-year business read dependent on margin and profit improvement.
Valuation sensitivity The trailing P/E is 285.5, the forward P/E is 140.2, and EV/EBITDA is 111.8. These multiples place substantial weight on future earnings progress, so the longer-horizon interpretation remains sensitive to whether profitability expands.
Market-linked variability Long-term holders would also note beta of 1.84 and annualized volatility of 46.8. The figures describe a business whose market valuation has historically moved with amplified daily-return variation, adding a material market-context risk to a multi-year read.
Evidence from this report, not a recommendation.
Short-term trader
Enter or wait?
Supporting evidence3
Nearby trend references Traders reading the chart point to the last close at 363.56 remaining above the 50-day moving average at 357.95 and the 20-day EMA at 351.83. This keeps the immediate price structure above nearby trend references, while a close below the derived ~348–368 zone would change that reading.
Positive momentum alignment Traders point to MACD at 3.66 above its signal line at 0.73 and +DI at 29.5 above -DI at 18.6. These readings describe positive directional alignment, though ADX at 22.8 limits the evidence of a firmly established trend.
Defined resistance map The derived ~375–400 area includes the 200-day moving average at 399.56. A move above that area would alter the short-term level structure, making the zone a clear reference for whether the rebound is extending.
Opposing evidence3
Softer momentum readings Traders would counter that weekly RSI is 45.7, stochastic %K is 43.4, and the 10-day rate of change is -2.42%. These figures describe a recent tone that has not produced broad momentum acceleration, despite the positive MACD alignment.
Quiet participation One-day relative volume is 0.86x, the volume z-score is -0.6, and the 20-day volume rank is 15.8%. The subdued activity means the recent price structure has limited confirmation from trading participation.
Volatility around levels ATR is 15.34, or 4.2% of the close, while days of elevated volume are 0. This combination leaves sizeable movement around nearby zones without evidence of a sustained participation burst, so breaks or rejections would need to be read against uneven confirmation.
Evidence from this report, not a recommendation.
Not yet invested
Start or skip?
Supporting evidence3
Starting range context A prospective investor would note the last close at 363.56 against a 52-week high of 498.83 and a 52-week low of 297.38, alongside a 1-month return of 9.24% and a 3-month return of -10.55%. This places the starting point within a wide recorded range and a mixed return sequence, rather than describing a single-direction price history.
Cash and liquidity profile Prospective investors point to free cash flow of 5.8B exceeding net income of 3.8B, with FCF conversion of 1.51, alongside a current ratio of 1.94. These figures describe cash generation and liquidity that can be weighed against the narrower operating margin of 1.4%.
Crowd-cited product claims Investors on X argue that FSD videos from Slovenia and China show real-world capability gains and that Supercharger pricing as low as 0.20 €/kWh in Germany boosts adoption. These remain unverified claims about capability and adoption, so they describe the business case being discussed rather than established evidence.
Opposing evidence3
Earnings versus revenue Prospective investors would note revenue growth of 25.5% alongside earnings growth of -3%, with a 3.7% profit margin. The gap means the business starting point includes meaningful top-line growth but limited conversion into year-over-year earnings expansion.
High earnings multiples The trailing P/E is 285.5, the forward P/E is 140.2, and the PEG ratio is 4.56. These figures make the starting valuation particularly dependent on future improvement in earnings and margins.
Unresolved price structure The last close at 363.56 remains below the 200-day moving average at 399.56 while sitting inside the derived ~348–368 zone. A close below this cluster would bring the derived ~307–324 support zone back into focus, while movement above the derived ~375–400 area would change the level structure.
Evidence from this report, not a recommendation.
Looking ahead
What has to go right?
What would need to stay true3
Earnings checkpoint The next earnings date is 2026-10-21, providing a defined point at which revenue growth of 25.5% and earnings growth of -3% can be reassessed together. For the current picture to keep developing, that checkpoint would need to clarify whether top-line growth is translating into improved earnings performance.
Cash conversion condition Free cash flow of 5.8B exceeds net income of 3.8B, and FCF conversion is 1.51. Continued cash generation at that relationship would preserve a counterweight to the 1.4% operating margin and 3.7% profit margin.
Crowd-cited positive events Investors on X cite a Cybercab Japan tour and FSD launch priority in September 2026, Model Y Performance China deliveries over the Next 2 weeks, and FSD supervised videos and expansions as positive events. These unverified claims would need observable confirmation to remain relevant conditions rather than discussion topics.
What could undercut it3
Margin conversion risk Earnings growth is -3% despite revenue growth of 25.5%, while the operating margin is 1.4% and the profit margin is 3.7%. The current picture could be undercut if the revenue expansion remains disconnected from earnings improvement.
Market sensitivity Beta is 1.84 and annualized volatility was 46.8, while the 52-week high is 498.83 and the 52-week low is 297.38. A continuation of that sensitivity would leave the forward picture exposed to broad-market movements and a wide trading range.
Crowd-cited negative events Investors on X cite an audit on Cybercab launch over the Next 1-2 months and competition from UBER in the robotaxi space as negative events. These are unverified claims, but they identify specific discussion points that could undercut the positive event narrative if they remain unresolved or gain market attention.
What X is saying
Voices, catalysts and arguments from public X discussion over the last 90 days: crowd opinion, not analysis.
X chatter on TSLA over the last 90 days centers on product launches, FSD progress and international expansion with a predominantly positive tone from influential accounts tracking news and deployments. Bullish voices highlight Cybercab tours, Model Y releases and FSD timelines while bearish notes focus on short-term price reactions and competition risks. Discussions reference X posts about robotaxi events, charging prices and analyst commentary.